NFL Betting Analysis

Backtest

Primary:

Global Weights

Custom weights for this game only

Edge: Model probability minus market odds.
Confidence: Signal alignment and data quality.

Core Efficiency

Offensive EPA 2

Expected points per play on offense.

Defensive EPA 2

Points allowed per play (lower is better).

Net EPA 2

Overall efficiency advantage.

Off Success Rate 2

Percentage of positive EPA plays.

Def Success Rate 2

Opponent success rate (lower is better).

Net Success Rate 2

Success rate differential.

QB Metrics

QB EPA 2

QB expected points per dropback.

QB CPOE 2

Completion percentage over expected.

QB Turnover Rate 2

Turnovers per dropback (lower is better).

QB Sack Rate 2

Sacks per dropback (lower is better).

QB Explosive Rate 2

Rate of 20+ yard passes.

Offense Metrics

Rush EPA 2

Expected points on rushing plays.

Pass EPA 2

Expected points on passing plays.

Explosive Play Rate 2

Percentage of 20+ yard plays.

Pace & Discipline

Plays Per Game 2

Average offensive plays per game.

Seconds Per Snap 2

Time between snaps (pace).

Turnover Margin 2

Turnovers forced minus committed.

Penalty Yards 2

Penalty yards per game (lower is better).

Context & Weather

Home Field 2

Home field advantage indicator.

Rest Advantage 2

Days of rest advantage.

Travel Penalty 2

Travel distance impact.

Wind Speed 2

Wind speed in MPH.

Temperature 2

Game time temperature.

Market Inputs

Market Spread 2

Vegas spread.

Market Total 2

Over/under line.

Market Moneyline 2

Moneyline odds.

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Spread

Moneyline

Total

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