Backtest - NFL Betting Analysis

Backtest Weights

These weights are independent and do not affect global or custom game weights.

Market Metrics

Home Advantage 2

Team performance advantage when playing at home.

Sharp Money 2

Influence of professional bettor activity.

Injury Impact 2

Effect of player injuries on team performance.

Line Movement 2

Significance of betting line changes.

Line Movement Signal 2

Direction of line movement signals.

Late Week Pressure 2

Late-breaking information before game time.

Market Agreement 2

Agreement between different market indicators.

Game Metrics

Power Rating 2

Overall team strength ranking compared to league average.

Net Efficiency 2

Points scored per play vs points allowed.

Turnover Differential 2

Ball security vs takeaway ability.

Trenches 2

Offensive and defensive line performance.

Scheme Compatibility 2

How well offensive/defensive schemes match up.

Pace & Play Volume 2

Game tempo and total plays expected.

QB Metrics

QB Efficiency 2

Overall quarterback performance rating.

QB Pressure Performance 2

QB performance when under pressure.

QB Turnover Risk 2

Likelihood of QB turnovers.

QB Consistency 2

Week-to-week QB performance stability.

QB Explosive Passing 2

Big play passing ability.

QB Red Zone Efficiency 2

QB performance inside opponent 20.

Defensive Metrics

Pass Rush Disruption 2

Ability to pressure the opposing QB.

Coverage Effectiveness 2

Secondary coverage quality.

Run Defense Control 2

Ability to stop the run.

Turnover Creation 2

Defense ability to force turnovers.

Third Down Defense 2

Stopping third down conversions.

Penalty Impact 2

How penalties affect team performance.

2025-2026 Season Backtest

Test your weight configuration against historical game results

How it works: This backtest evaluates only Strong Lean recommendations (edge >= 3.5% AND confidence >= 65) from each model against actual game outcomes. Adjust the weights in the sidebar and click Run Backtest.

Adjust weights in the sidebar and click the button above to run a backtest