NFL Betting Analysis

Backtest

Primary Model:

Global Weights

Custom weights for this game only

Edge: How much the model probability exceeds the market odds.
Confidence: How aligned and complete the signals are.

Market Metrics

Home Advantage 2

Team performance advantage when playing at home.

Sharp Money 3

Influence of professional bettor activity.

Injury Impact 2

Effect of player injuries on team performance.

Line Movement 2

Significance of betting line changes.

Line Movement Signal 2

Direction of line movement signals.

Late Week Pressure 2

Late-breaking information before game time.

Market Agreement 2

Agreement between different market indicators.

Game Metrics

Power Rating 2

Overall team strength ranking compared to league average.

Net Efficiency 2

Points scored per play vs points allowed (EPA/Success Rate).

Turnover Differential 2

Ball security vs takeaway ability, adjusted for opponent.

Trenches 2

Offensive line vs defensive line matchup strength.

Scheme Compatibility 2

How well the offensive/defensive schemes match up.

Pace & Play Volume 2

Game tempo and total play volume expected.

QB Metrics

QB Efficiency 2

QB effectiveness on a per-play basis vs league average.

QB Pressure Performance 2

How QB performs when under pressure.

QB Turnover Risk 2

Likelihood of QB throwing interceptions or fumbling.

QB Consistency 2

Game-to-game stability of QB performance.

QB Explosive Passing 2

Big play ability in the passing game (20+ yard throws).

QB Red Zone Efficiency 2

QB performance inside the opponent 20-yard line.

Defensive Metrics

Pass Rush Disruption 2

Ability to pressure the opposing QB.

Coverage Effectiveness 2

Secondary coverage quality and pass defense.

Run Defense Control 2

Ability to stop the run and control line of scrimmage.

Turnover Creation 2

Defense ability to force turnovers.

Third Down Defense 2

Effectiveness at stopping third down conversions.

Penalty Impact 2

How penalties affect team performance.

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